Serbia’s geopolitical position makes it a key battleground for influence between the West and authoritarian powers like Russia and China. While the EU remains Serbia’s largest trading partner and its most significant political ally, the influence of Moscow and Beijing has grown in recent years. Both countries have sought to deepen their ties with Serbia, offering economic incentives, political support, and strategic investments as they vie for influence in the Balkans. Russia’s influence in Serbia is deeply rooted in shared cultural and religious ties, but it has been bolstered by geopolitical interests. For Moscow, Serbia is a strategic foothold in the Balkans, a region that is critical for its proximity to the EU and NATO. By cultivating close ties with Belgrade, the Kremlin aims to maintain its influence in the region and prevent Serbia from fully integrating with Western institutions.
On September 12, 2024, the Europe House in Belgrade became the focal point for a critical discussion “Democratic Resilience, Rule of Law, and Economic Security: Charting Policy Options for the Western Balkans.” The event, organized by the Center for the Study of Democracy, in cooperation with its partners in the Southeast Europe Leadership for Development and Integrity (SELDI) and with the support of its international partners in the region, featured diplomats, scholars, and political leaders who explored the pressing issues facing Serbia and the broader Balkan region.
The first panel featured high-ranking diplomats, including ambassadors from the European Union, the United States, and Bulgaria. These figures represented a unified Western stance, emphasizing Serbia’s geopolitical significance and the global stakes of its democratic development. Opening the dialogue, Petko Doykov, Bulgaria’s ambassador to Serbia, highlighted the importance of democratic resilience and the rule of law. These are not mere “buzzwords,” he stressed, but the “founding cornerstones of the EU.” Doykov underscored that democratic institutions—such as fair elections, an independent judiciary, and free media—are essential pillars that must be fortified as Serbia continues its EU accession journey. The U.S. Ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, followed with a message of confidence in Serbia’s westward trajectory. “I have no doubt that Serbia is heading westward,” he said, urging Serbia to strengthen ties with its Western partners and increase international engagement as a show of solidarity. Hill’s optimism set the stage for a hopeful vision of Serbia’s future, despite the complex challenges posed by external actors. European Union Ambassador Emanuele Giaufret built on these sentiments, framing Serbia’s integration within the broader context of Europe’s security. He noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had only amplified the strategic importance of bringing the Western Balkans into the EU fold. “Russia’s war in Ukraine only further underlines the importance of the Western Balkans joining the EU,” Giaufret remarked. However, he cautioned that a comprehensive reform agenda remains crucial to ensuring Serbia’s readiness for EU membership.
As the first panel drew to a close, the ambassadors had set the tone: Serbia’s future lies in the West, but the journey will require steadfast commitment to reform and the rule of law. The audience seemed energized, ready for the next panel, which promised a deeper dive into the internal challenges Serbia faces in achieving these goals. The second panel brought a diverse group of voices into the discussion, including political figures, researchers, and civil society leaders. This was where the conversation shifted from diplomatic ideals to the gritty reality of Serbia’s domestic political landscape.
Nikola Burazer, Executive Director of European Western Balkans, did not mince words as he addressed Serbia’s complex relationship with Russia. “Russia has a strong interest in derailing the integration process,” Burazer warned, acknowledging the historic and cultural ties that have complicated Serbia’s EU journey. He also noted that the lengthy and difficult process of European enlargement has contributed to lingering skepticism within Serbia about the benefits of EU membership. Ksenija Marković, Member of Parliament of Serbia and international secretary of the Democratic Party, shifted the focus to domestic challenges. In her view, Serbia’s European integration cannot be reduced to a mere technical process. “For me, the European integration process is not a technical issue, it’s a matter of political will,” she stated, pointing to internal threats such as a lack of media freedom, the erosion of democratic institutions, and the undermining of parliamentary authority. Marković’s passionate call for a renewed commitment to democratic reforms resonated with many in the audience. The conversation then turned to the issue of civil security, with CSD’s Ryan McLaren providing a stark assessment. He discussed how external powers, particularly Russia, have focused on “the capture, manipulation, and politicization of civil security institutions” in the Balkans as part of their strategy to weaken democratic governance. McLaren’s research underscored the vulnerabilities within Serbia’s institutions, which are prone to corruption and foreign influence, and how these weaken the nation’s resilience. In response, Prof. Tanja Miščević, Minister of European Integration, offered a message of hope. She assured the audience that her ministry was fully committed to building a stronger parliamentary democracy in Serbia. “The parliament will have my ministry’s support in building the strong roots for the stable institution of the parliamentary democracy. That is my goal!” she declared, emphasizing that democratic institutions must be at the heart of Serbia’s European future. Dr. Igor Novaković, Senior Associate at the International and Security Affairs Centre, brought a regional perspective to the conversation. He emphasized that Serbia’s security should not rely solely on distant international actors but should instead focus on building strong relationships with its neighbors. “Our own security depends not on support from some faraway country; our own security depends on ourselves and our neighbors,” Novaković concluded, reinforcing the importance of regional cooperation in safeguarding democratic stability.
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